The Roar's AFL expert tips and predictions, Round 12: The byes have arrived - any chance of a perfect 7/7? (2024)

The byes are here. Again!

After Opening Round meant eight teams had a week off across the first two months of the season, the official bye rounds have arrived for 2023. And just like last year, they’re spread over four weeks for… reasons?

Round 12 is the most footy-filled weekend of the month ahead, with seven matches as opposed to six – though inexplicably, both Sydney teams are sharing the weekend off despite the NRL also having one of their bye weekends. Considering how big a factor in the creation of Opening Round was the rival code playing a couple of their games in Las Vegas, that’s another interesting (read: baffling) fixturing call from the AFL.

As for the games, there’s more difference of opinion than ever among our experts, and the key question you’ll have to ask yourself before locking in your teams is this: just how important, in modern footy, is home ground advantage?

Tim Miller

Last week: 7

Port Adelaide, Collingwood, Hawthorn, West Coast, Geelong, Melbourne, Gold Coast

My answer to the above home ground advantage question is: very.

As such, I’m going seven for seven for the ‘home’ teams this weekend – though I’ve got doubts about plenty of those matches.

Port Adelaide are still a bit of an enigma, especially when facing other good teams, but at the Adelaide Oval they should be too strong for a Carlton team that, despite a good win over Gold Coast last week, seems a fair way off their best.

Collingwood are a rare case of a ‘home’ team not actually being at their home ground, but they play enough at Docklands and should get a good enough contingent of the monstrous Magpie Army over to mitigate that against the similarly injury-ravaged Bulldogs.

Hawthorn’s clash with Adelaide is a sneaky game of the round contender – I’m a sucker for Saturday afternoon matches at the MCG too. Despite the Crows’ impressive pounding of West Coast last week, the Hawks’ recent run of form has me siding with them.

West Coast on the road have been pretty much just as awful as in the last two seasons, but at home they’ve become a fearsome prospect, which spells trouble for the visiting St Kilda. Geelong, meanwhile, are on a four-match losing streak, but having given themselves leeway with an excellent start to the season, they’ll remain on track unless Richmond can pull off the upset of the century at GMHBA Stadium

Fremantle make the trip to the red centre to face Melbourne in Alice Springs; it’s not a conventional home game for the Dees, but they’ve been playing here for years and should be familiar enough with the ground to get the job done. And to finish off the round, while Essendon’s run of wins has been hugely impressive no matter what the critics might say, Gold Coast at home is a tough assignment, and I can’t help thinking that the Dons are due a loss at some point.

Dem Panopoulos

Last week: 6

Carlton, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, St Kilda, Geelong, Fremantle, Gold Coast

As NSYNC said in their hit song, rounds 12 to 15 are also known as bye, bye, bye (bye) rounds, meaning there aren’t as many games to tip, or stuff up.

In saying that, I’ll do my best.

Heavy rain is expected for the Thursday night clash between the Power and the Blues. We’re about to learn a fair bit about the home team over the next month and particularly, see how they’ll go head-to-head with some incredibly strong midfields. Carlton might be favoured here slightly at ground level.

The undermanned Magpies against a Bulldogs team that are missing a couple of star players themselves should still be an entertaining contest. Collingwood hosts, but it’s being played at the Bulldogs’ home ground. I’ll be impressed if the Magpies win.

The Hawks pulled off a kind of upset against the Lions, but also not really given how well they match up against them and how average Brisbane are. This time, they’re against a fired=up Adelaide team. These two haven’t played each other at the MCG since 2018 and the Crows haven’t won here since 2017. Home team to leap the visitors.

I think the Saints will wake up and not slip to 16th on the ladder this week against West Coast, based purely off vibes. Similarly, the Cats should awaken from their slumber and smash the Tigers at home, if Richmond get the right directions in for actually getting to Geelong.

It’s an important game for Fremantle against Melbourne, who haven’t beaten a top eight team, but gone really close multiple times. Playing the Demons at Traeger Park is particularly winnable. It sort of makes you wonder how many draws we can have in a short space of time. The low-scoring Dockers win for me.

Finally, the Suns and the Bombers play in a vital clash in the primetime spot of Sunday twilight-adjacent. I’m not sure we quite trust either team. Gold Coast is pretty good at home, so maybe they have the slight edge.

Cameron Rose

Last week: 6

Carlton, Collingwood, Adelaide, WestCoast, Geelong, Melbourne, Essendon.

I think Carlton will set themselves for this trip to face Port Adelaide, having gone 2-3 over the last five weeks. An interstate game before their bye is perfect timing for a galvanising clash on the road and leaving it all out there.

They can win the midfield battle, have the forwards to be dangerous, and Willie Rioli is a big out for Port.

Gold Coast vs Essendon is likewise a game of intrigue, with the Suns looking to consolidate their home ground advantage this season, while the Bombers keep fronting up and doing the job. I’m trusting the Dons for now.

Liam Salter

Last week: 5

Port Adelaide, Collingwood, Adelaide, West Coast, Geelong, Fremantle, Essendon

Thursday night finds two teams in Port Adelaide and Carlton in a weirdechelon: seemingly very, very good, but inconsistent enough that I’m never entirely comfortable backing either for a win.

I can’t even default to home ground advantage here – while Port ostensibly have a strong edge (theBlues have just one win at Adelaide Oval, two months back), the visitors have a good recent record against Ken Hinkley’s troops. Serious doubt here, butI’ll back the home team to flex some muscle and win this.

The Magpies are injury ravaged, not playing particularlywell and yet are still somehow the favourites in their arduousroad trip to the Docklands to face the Dogs. It’s probably for good reason – I downright refuse to trust the Doggies, and am no longer surprised by Collingwood’s ability to sneak a win (….or a draw).

Similarly, the Hawks beating the Crows would be not at all surprising, and a little tempting to tip, but the Crows looked excellent last week and will go two on the trot.

It’s almost ridiculous to me to suggest the best statement the deeply mediocre Saints can make right now is beating the Eagles in Perth, but it essentially is. It’s a genuinely tough task: the Eagles are much better at home, and will be frustrated with last week’s loss. Sorry, Saints fans, this may not be pretty.

At the same time, Richmond has the chance to do a very, very funny thing – except this is probably the game Geelong steamrolls them, (momentarily?) putting to bed any commentary about the Cats’ losing streak.

Freo meet the Demons in Alice Springs on Sunday afternoon, and it’s West Australians who have more to lose here heading into the bye. It’s becoming a season marked by near-misses (the Blues, Port, last Friday’s draw), and the club would desperately like the win against the flying-under-the-radar Dees. Caution to the win, and a little bit biased – the Dockers will do it.

Almost every week is a test for the floating-on-a-high Essendon (and their fans), and this week it’s surviving a tricky trip to the Gold Coast. The Suns do traditionally look significantly stronger in Carrara, but nobody has (yet) been able to trip up the Dons, and I’m increasingly confident backing them.

Hah. Those are genuinedangerous last words.